XR, AR and VR in 2026: the honest state after the cycle

Actualizado: 2026-05-16

The extended reality hype cycle has been particularly dramatic in the last three years. Between 2023 and early 2024, with the announcement and launch of Apple Vision Pro, predictions pointed to a paradigm shift comparable to the smartphone. During 2025 the landing was hard: Vision Pro sold much less than expected, several flagship apps were pulled, Microsoft shut down HoloLens 2, and Meta had to recalibrate Horizon Worlds forecasts several times. With the dust settled, time for an honest balance of what’s left standing and what’s been silently buried.

Key takeaways

• Meta Quest 3S (~70% of consumer VR market) and Apple Vision Pro 2 (premium professional niche) are the two poles of relevant hardware.
• The real success story is in silent enterprise adoption: manufacturing, logistics, health, technical training, and remote maintenance.
• VR gaming is reasonably healthy; social metaverse and Horizon Worlds have notably reduced ambitions.
• WebXR has reached enough maturity for real cases without app download: AR catalogs from the browser, virtual tours, brief VR training.
• Silently dead: HoloLens 2, Google Glass Enterprise Edition 2, metaverse as unified concept, first-generation AR apps for commerce and advertising.

The hardware: lots of consolidation, little disruption

In device terms, the real landscape is simpler than 2023 hype suggested. Meta Quest 3S (launched October 2024, 299 dollars) has become the dominant product in the consumer segment. Meta Quest 3, slightly higher tier, covers more demanding users and developers. Together they account for approximately seventy percent of the VR market.

Apple Vision Pro remains alive but fitted in a very specific niche. After a launch with inflated expectations and disappointing sales, Apple recalibrated its strategy toward professional productivity and premium users. Vision Pro 2, presented in late 2025, keeps the same high-price profile and is clearly oriented toward professional uses where cost isn’t the limiting factor.

Chinese manufacturers — PICO with PICO 5 and several minor ones — have consolidated presence in Asia and Europe with technically competent products but limited by regulatory restrictions and lack of a content ecosystem comparable to Meta’s. The second generation of lighter AR glasses (Xreal Light, Rokid, Lenovo ThinkReality) has matured as an independent category.

The enterprise story: where AR has stuck

The most interesting thing isn’t mass consumption but silent enterprise adoption. Industries like manufacturing, logistics, health, technical training, and remote maintenance have consolidated real use cases where AR and VR bring measurable value:

• An AR-guided operator makes fewer errors in complex assemblies.
• A remote technician resolves more incidents without travel, sharing video with 3D annotations.
• A medical student practices more simulator hours without risk.

These economic returns justify investment in specialized hardware, custom software, and training, and have kept the professional industry alive while the general consumer lost interest.

Microsoft shut down HoloLens 2 in 2025, but the enterprise AR ecosystem has continued with other players: Magic Leap 2 with consolidated industrial clients, Lenovo ThinkReality in productivity, and several minor sector-specialized manufacturers.

The consumer story: games yes, social no

In consumer, the split is clear. The VR gaming segment is reasonably healthy, with successful titles like Batman: Arkham Shadow and sustained best-sellers. Small developers regularly ship titles that find their audience.

The social and metaverse segment, however, has clearly regressed:

• Meta’s Horizon Worlds has reduced ambitions after several years with active user numbers below expectations.
• VRChat and Rec Room remain as loyal niche communities but without explosive growth.
• Enterprise metaverses (Microsoft Mesh, Vision Pro workspaces) have had lukewarm acceptance.

Multimedia consumption has gone better. Watching movies, recorded concerts, or sporting events in VR has a real market, though smaller than predicted.

WebXR: the open bet that’s still alive

One area deserving special attention is WebXR, the web standard for immersive experiences. By 2026 WebXR has reached enough maturity for real cases without app download:

• Product catalogs in AR previewed from the mobile browser.
• Immersive virtual tours without installation.
• Brief VR training accessible from any compatible headset.

The technical ecosystem around WebXR — three.js with XR module, Babylon.js, A-Frame — has matured. Real portability between devices (Quest, Vision Pro with Safari, Android AR glasses) is comparable to traditional web: with careful testing and some tweaks, the same thing works on several devices.

A minimal example in A-Frame, the markup library for WebXR scenes, remains surprisingly short. This fragment builds a basic navigable VR scene from any headset with compatible browser. The technical barrier to start is genuinely low, and time from idea to functional prototype can be measured in hours, not weeks.

What’s silently died

Several recent bets have disappeared without noise:

• Microsoft HoloLens 2 — discontinued in 2025.
• Google Glass Enterprise Edition 2 — discontinued in late 2025 after years of decline.
• Magic Leap One — replaced by enterprise Magic Leap 2 but without consumer traction.
• First-generation AR apps promising to transform commerce and advertising — pulled or reduced to occasional marketing experiments.

The metaverse as unified concept has lost almost all discursive relevance. Big strategic bets non-tech companies made in 2021-2022 (brands buying virtual land, immersive NFT galleries) have been closed or converted to something much more modest. The term is mentioned less and has been replaced by more specific language (industrial AR, VR gaming, multimedia immersion).

Conclusion

Extended reality is a perfect example of how hype distorts the valuation of a genuinely useful technology. XR isn’t going to transform consumer computing as the 2023 narrative promised; mobile remains the dominant device for accessing information and communication. But it’s not dead either: it has simply found the niches where it really brings value and is growing sustainably there, out of the media spotlight.

For a professional considering training or projects, the recommendation is specific by sector:

• If you work in industries where AR has consolidated cases (manufacturing, health, maintenance, technical training), it pays to train in specific platforms and build capability; demand is real and growing.
• If you work in web development and seek differentiation, WebXR is reasonable investment with moderate but consistent return.
• If you think about mass consumption, keep distance: the market exists but is small, competitive, and not going to explode as predicted.

The general lesson is the same as with many other technologies: real value is found where concrete problems are solved better, not where hype paints the future.